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来源：百度知道 编辑：UC知道 时间：2024/06/27 06:20:28
Is the Renminbi Undervalued?
Among the many approaches available for estimating equilibrium exchange rates, I prefer two: the “underlying balance”approach and the “global payments” approach. In both cases, I am going to assume that no wholesale change occurs in China’s capital account regime over the next three years. Under the underlying balance approach, one asks what level of the real, effectiv(trade-weighted) exchange rate would produce equilibrium in the country’s balance of payments, where equilibrium means an “underlying” current account position that is approximately equal (and opposite in sign) to “normal” net capital flows.
Suppose we take the average of China’s capital account balance over the 1999–2002 period—a surplus equal to 11/2 percent of GDP—as a rough estimate of its “normal” net capital flows. China’s capital account surplus in 2003 and 2004 was much
larger than that—on the order of 7–8 percent of GDP—but much of that appears to have been driven by
Among the many approaches available for estimating equilibrium exchange rates, I prefer two: the “underlying balance”approach and the “global payments” approach. In both cases, I am going to assume that no wholesale change occurs in China’s capital account regime over the next three years. Under the underlying balance approach, one asks what level of the real, effectiv(trade-weighted) exchange rate would produce equilibrium in the country’s balance of payments, where equilibrium means an “underlying” current account position that is approximately equal (and opposite in sign) to “normal” net capital flows.
Suppose we take the average of China’s capital account balance over the 1999–2002 period—a surplus equal to 11/2 percent of GDP—as a rough estimate of its “normal” net capital flows. China’s capital account surplus in 2003 and 2004 was much
larger than that—on the order of 7–8 percent of GDP—but much of that appears to have been driven by
人民币是否会贬值?
在众多的均衡汇率估算方法中,我倾向两个: "基本平衡"的方针和"全球支付"的方针. 在这两种情况下, 我假定未来三年没有发生变化批发中国资本帐户制度. 根据基本平衡的做法,即问什么水平, 副作用(贸易特权)会产生均衡汇率,在我国国际收支平衡, 此平衡是指"背后的"位置即约等于经常帐(相对的)"正常的"净资本 流动. 假如我们取平均值,中国在1999-2002年期间的资本帐户余额-盈余相当于11/2% 总值的粗略估计为"正常"的净资本流入. 中国的资本帐盈余,2003年和2004年远多于对国内生产总值为7-8%,但 这似乎是许多投机资金流入带动下, 主要诱发人民币升值的预期.
Renminbi 被低估吗? 在许多方法之中可利用为估计平衡交换率, 我更喜欢二: "部下的balance"approach 和"全球性付款" 接近。在两个案件, 我假设, 批发变动不发生在中国的资本帐户政权以后三年。在部下的平衡方法之下, 你问什么水平的真正, effectiv(trade-weighted) 交换率会导致平衡在国家的国际收支差额表, 平衡意味一个"部下的" 经常往来帐户位置是近似地相等(和对面在标志) 对"正常" 净资金流量。 假设我们国民生产总值和它的"正常" 净资金流量的粗略估计采取平均中国的首都账户结余在1999-2002 期间节余相等与百分之11/2 。中国的资本帐户节余2003 年和2004 年是 大比在国民生产总值但那的百分之7-8 命令看上去被投机的外资流入驾驶了, 主要被renminbi 的期望的欣赏导致。